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Download the CNN App Politics 7 min read


Trump might end his war — but the rest of the world may pay the price

President Donald Trump answers questions from reporters after signing an executive order in the Oval Office of the White House on Tuesday, March 31, as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick listens.President
Donald Trump answers questions from reporters after signing an executive order
in the Oval Office of the White House on Tuesday, March 31, as Commerce
Secretary Howard Lutnick listens.Alex Brandon/APDonald Trump The Middle East
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Donald Trump looks like he’s getting ready to just walk away.

The president is telling US allies — who didn’t join his war in Iran because
they got no advance notice, didn’t want it and thought it infringed
international law — that they’ll be stuck with the consequences.

“Go get your own oil,” he wrote on Truth Social Tuesday, shortly before sources
told CNN that the administration can’t promise to restore free navigation
through the Strait of Hormuz before declaring mission accomplished.

The president later predicted the war will be “finished” within two to three
weeks. “What happens in the Strait, we’re going to have nothing do with,” he
told reporters in the Oval Office

Iran has used the choke point at the mouth of the Persian Gulf to halt crucial
oil supplies and to hold the global economy hostage. If the war ends with it in
control of the critical waterway, it will chalk up a strategic victory.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth speaks to members of the media during a press briefing at the Pentagon on Tuesday, March 31.Defense
...

Amid fresh signs Trump wants the war over, officials seem to be shaping
rhetorical cover for him to end it without fixing the aftermath. Defense
Secretary Pete Hegseth on Tuesday claimed the US had achieved “regime change”
in Iran — even though the country is still ruled by repressive Islamic radicals
who despise the US.
...

choices facing Trump more than a month into the war and the growing pressure of
a four-to-six-week deadline officials set for its duration. They follow
assertions by the president that “productive” talks are taking place with Iran
— although officials in Tehran deny this is the case and there’s no public
evidence of diplomatic progress.
...

victory. But it might still be a preferable endgame for the president because
any attempt to reopen the strait by force would risk heavy US casualties and
prolong the war in a way that would further undermine his eroded political
authority at home.

...

Trump can’t escape the consequence of his decisions
---------------------------------------------------

Gas prices soar past $4.50 per gallon as seen at a Circle K, on Friday, March 20, in Key West, Floriday.Gas
prices soar past $4.50 per gallon as seen at a Circle K, on Friday, March 20,
...

strait under the control of a reinvigorated Iran. Trump may be able to create
political spin to explain his exit — but the markets are unlikely to be as easy
to convince.

“Even though the united States is the world’s leading oil producer, that
...

More broadly, the fallout of the Iran war now threatens another consequence: an
even deeper fracture in the transatlantic alliance. This would only underscore
the need for European allies — and those Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney
calls “middle powers” — to invest more in their own militaries with the
understanding that America’s post-World War II security umbrella has become
...

How Europe might pay the price
------------------------------

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer attends a meeting to discuss the US-Israeli conflict with Iran and the impact on the Strait of Hormuz, in London, on Monday, March 30.Britain's
Prime Minister Keir Starmer attends a meeting to discuss the US-Israeli
...

Allied leaders are learning in the unpredictable age of Trump that they can no
longer rely on US security guarantees since an American president appears close
to making them conditional on blanket support for his actions.

Some, like Britain, initially withheld permission for the US to use air bases
...

But Trump put those leaders in an impossible position. His year of berating
allies, including his demands that Denmark hand over Greenland; tariff
assaults; and disdain for the sacrifices of America’s friends in post-9/11 wars
meant they had little room to both help him and save their own political
careers.
...

But staying out of the war won’t spare them from paying its costs.
High energy prices and rising inflation threaten to crush fragile economies and
cause political blowback among electorates to already-weak centrist governments
in Europe. There’s talk of rationing gasoline and diesel already in some EU

Middle East allies. But without the support of the US, there’s no chance NATO
powers could open the strait and keep it open. Even the mighty US Navy
currently considers it too dangerous to venture in range of Iranian drones and
missiles.

As always with Trump, it’s wise not to take everything he says at face value.
Indications the US may walk away from the war came a day after he warned that
he’d obliterate Iranian electrical plants and even desalination facilities in a
violent escalation of the war if Tehran failed to satisfy his demands for
peace.

Trump’s public venting is sometimes a ruse to force the hands of weaker
counterparts. Rubio hinted that this might be the case when he said on Friday
that “countries in Asia and all over the world have a lot at stake and should
contribute greatly” to an effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

There may be no clear off-ramp for Iran and the US — but maybe there’s one for
US allies in their showdown with Trump. Europe does have the capacity to be
useful. Some countries have minesweeping capabilities that the US lacks. France
has said it would be willing to join an international mission with other navies
to protect shipping through the strait — but only after fighting stops.

“I think they’re still working to prevent these differences with the United
States on Iran from causing a permanent rupture to the transatlantic
relationship,” Stephen Flanagan, a former senior director for defense policy
...

briefing Tuesday. “But this has become difficult every day in the face of
Trump’s withering criticisms of how the Europeans have responded so far.”

The US seems to want more.

...

than most; in fact, dramatically less than most. So the world ought pay
attention and be prepared to stand up,” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said
Tuesday.

But there’s no appetite in Europe for being dragged into yet another American
...

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